Basil Jarrett | In fear of a new cocaine epidemic

There has been an uptick in cocaine seizures by local law enforcement bodies since the start of the year. In March, the Jamaica Defence Force intercepted a go-fast vessel off Treasure Beach, St Elizabeth and seized more than 2,500 kilogrammes of cocaine. In May, police found another major cache in St Thomas.

Taken together with other seizures, Jamaica Constabulary Force figures indicate that Jamaica’s 2026 total has already exceeded the highest annual cocaine seizure figure recorded over the previous decade by roughly 80 per cent.

Diversified product lines, shifting markets and multiple transit routes point to a rapidly evolving criminal landscape that, as usual, has law enforcement playing catch-up. That is the broad picture emerging from a composite review of public reporting, official statistics, locally generated law enforcement data and regional intelligence assessments covering trafficking trends between 2023 and 2026.

THE NEW BOYS

Cocaine and marijuana are no longer the only big boys in the room. Synthetic drugs, especially methamphetamine, have entered as a third commodity of interest to organised criminal groups. In other words, traffickers have updated their product catalogue as demand and profit margins have soared. Despite this wider range of illegal substances, the traditional geography of drug trafficking remains largely unchanged. South America is still the production hub,

Central America and the Caribbean remain the key transit belt, and North America and Western Europe remain the big payday. Sitting somewhere in the middle is Jamaica, a crucial intermediary point facilitating the movement of narcotics to destinations such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, the United States and Australia.

Air-route seizure incidents increased by 50 per cent in 2024 and by a further 67 per cent in 2025. By the middle of 2026, recorded activity had already reached nearly three-quarters of the previous year’s full total. Commercial passenger travel remains the main method, while the United Kingdom continues to be a steady destination. Canada, however, became much more prominent, recording an eightfold increase in identified air-route incidents in 2025 and continued activity during the first half of 2026. That is a worrying shift.

NUMBERS BY SEA

Recorded seizure incidents tripled at seas in 2024 and rose by another 50 per cent in 2025. By the first half of 2026, incident levels were already close to 80 per cent of the full-year 2025 total. The volume seized moved even more sharply: it more than tripled in 2024, rose by over half in 2025 and, during the first six months of 2026, was already more than four times the entire volume recorded in 2025. If that trajectory continues, this year will not merely exceed the last few. It will bulldoze them.

Then there is the northbound maritime movement through Jamaica, which tells its own story. Detected movements increased by roughly 13 per cent in 2024 and by another 38 per cent in 2025. By mid-2026, the number of identified movements had already overtaken the total for all of 2025.

Estimated volumes expanded even faster, rising by roughly 46 per cent in 2024, more than doubling in 2025, and then reaching a level in the first half of 2026 that was almost 70 per cent above the full-year 2025 figure. In six months, the estimated volume had already outstripped the previous full year by almost 70 per cent.

Despite the emergence and popularity of synthetic drugs, cocaine remains the dominant northbound product, still moving mainly from Colombia through Caribbean channels or through Central America by land. An active Eastern Pacific route through Panama, Costa Rica and Mexico was also identified in 2026, showing just how flexible traffickers have become when one channel gets too hot.

INCREASING DEMANDS

It is not only the types of drugs and the available routes that are becoming more dynamic. Demand patterns are shifting as well. In Western Europe, estimated cocaine use increased by roughly 17 per cent between 2023 and the first half of 2026, while marijuana use rose by about 7 per cent. North America remains an immensely important market, although recent estimates point to softer cocaine demand, while methamphetamine use increased by roughly 9 per cent. Oceania remains smaller in raw demand but extraordinarily significant in value. A kilogramme of cocaine valued at around US$2,000 in Colombia can rise to approximately US$3,500 in Jamaica and as much as US$350,000 in Australia. That is a 175-fold increase, which explains why traffickers are prepared to take extraordinary risks to service those markets.

The concealment methods identified across recent cases also serve as a reminder that criminals are endlessly inventive. Drugs have been hidden in passenger luggage, aircraft facilities, vehicle undercarriages and ordinary commercial cargo, including food products, printing materials, plywood and even books. In other words, the modern narco-economy hides in plain sight, tucked neatly inside everyday items and legitimate trade, making interdiction that much harder.

LAW ENFORCEMENT RESPONSE

The lesson is that the law enforcement response cannot remain static. It requires sharper maritime awareness, stronger cargo profiling, better intelligence fusion, and deeper coordination among local, regional and international partners. Recent interdictions suggest that this is already happening, and that intelligence-led task forces, shared databases and faster cooperation are having an impact. But, what about the public’s role? If more cocaine is now moving through Jamaica, the challenge is not only to seize it but also to prevent the country from becoming a cheaper, easier consumer market. Not all of the cocaine transiting in will transit out, and we all know how that particular story plays out on our streets and in our hospitals.

For that reason, the emerging evidence should serve as a not-so-subtle warning to all of us to stay vigilant if we are to prevent Jamaica from becoming the epicentre of a new and catastrophic cocaine epidemic, marked by increased violence, murder and mayhem in our communities. And we’ve all seen that movie before.

Major Basil Jarrett is director of MOCA and a crisis communications consultant. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, Threads @IamBasilJarrett and linkedin.com/in/basiljarrett