Expect 'catastrophic flooding' as Melissa to pound Jamaica for five days – Met office head on latest forecast

“There is nowhere that will escape the wrath,” Principal Director at the Meteorological Service, Jamaica, Evan Thompson, warned Saturday, as Tropical Storm Melissa edges closer to the island.

He said the system, on the brink of becoming a hurricane, is expected to make landfall in Jamaica as a category 4 system on Tuesday.

“With the slow movement of this system, it doesn't allow you to recover. It's not like it's going to just move off and then gradually water runs off. It's going to sit there, pouring water while it's barely moving and that is a significant challenge that we have to be aware of.," he said at a special news conference. "It's going to cause significant, widespread, catastrophic, life-threatening floods, as long as what is predicted does take place. There is a small window of a changing of track but even in my discussion with the hurricane centre this morning, they say that window is closing."

The storm is moving west-northwest at just one mile per hour, packing winds of 110 km/h. It is expected to pass south of Jamaica, and upon reaching south of Clarendon, will begin moving northward across the island.

“At that time it is expected to be a major hurricane because what we are expecting after today is that there will be rapid intensification of the system… it will continue to move towards the southern coastline of Jamaica. It should make impact with the coastline by Tuesday morning. Today is Saturday so we have about three days,” he said.

Thompson said officials from the United States National Hurricane Centre warned that rainfall could trigger “catastrophic” flooding, with totals of 15 to 25 inches expected over the next few days. He urged residents in low-lying areas to relocate to higher ground or shelters.

“It’s going to be here for a long time. This system, as I said, from the earlier picture lots of rainfall and it will be with us for a good five days – heavy rainfall and increasing wind speed,” he said.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin impacting eastern Jamaica today, spreading across the rest of the island by tomorrow. Hurricane-force winds are forecast to begin on Monday and continue through Wednesday.

“So we’re going to go through almost 48 hours of storm force winds affecting sections of the island before hurricane force winds actually begin to impact us and that is expected to continue right through Monday, right through Tuesday, right through Wednesday and then we could be starting to experience some weakening in terms of the wind speeds,” he added.

Thompson said the impact will continue for another two days afterward. “…It will be a major hurricane. What is projected right now is that it will be a category 4 hurricane that makes impact on the island,” he said, pointing to Hurricane Gilbert, which caused significant damage as a category 3 system.

Earlier, he cautioned: “Today (Saturday) is really the last day to do what you have to do on the outside. Don't expect to do anything tomorrow or anytime between now and next week Friday.”

- Kimone Francis

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