Storm Melissa to 'rapidly intensify' today, Jamaica to start feeling effects in hours - Met Office

Rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to begin today, with the system forecast to become a hurricane within hours and strengthen into a major hurricane by Sunday, according to the Meteorological Service of Jamaica.

In its 8 a.m. bulletin issued on Saturday, the Met Service said a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica as the system nears hurricane strength.

A hurricane warning means that within the next 36 hours or less Jamaicans should expect dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force as well as an average winds of 64 knots (119km/h) or higher.

At 7 a.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Melissa was located about 210 kilometres (130 miles) southeast of Morant Point and 260 kilometres (160 miles) southeast of Kingston.

“Tropical Storm Melissa is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 km/h (1 mph) and a slow west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today through Sunday night. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday,” the Met Service reported.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 km/h (70 mph), with higher gusts. “Rapid intensification is expected to begin soon and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane today and a major hurricane by Sunday,” the bulletin added.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 kilometres (115 miles) from the centre.

“On the forecast track, the centre of Melissa is expected to move over central Jamaica early next week and over eastern Cuba by the middle of the week,” the Met Service said.

The storm is expected to produce rainfall amounts reaching 350 to 650 millimetres (15 to 25 inches) over parts of Jamaica in the next few days, with catastrophic flash floods and landslides likely.

“As the tropical storm moves closer to the island, expect tropical storm force winds to initially affect the island, mainly over eastern parishes by tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday,” the Met Service stated.

Small craft operators, including fishers on the cays and banks, are advised to remain in safe harbour until all warnings are lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

Meanwhile, Evan Thompson, head of the Met Office, told The Gleaner on Friday afternoon that Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday as a major hurricane.

“It is expected to continue moving more or less toward the west until it is south of Jamaica, directly south of, say, central Jamaica, and then it should start moving more to the north. So at that time, we are expecting that it will rapidly intensify. It could likely become a major hurricane by Monday, and then through Tuesday, we are expecting that it will actually be moving across the island from south to north, central Jamaica, and then exiting later on Tuesday and moving toward Cuba…. We're looking at a major hurricane making landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday,” Thompson said.

He explained that landfall means Jamaicans should brace for the most severe impacts.

“Well, with landfall, all that means is that the eye or the centre of the system is expected to move across the coast. And that usually means that if you're living on the land, residents will experience the strongest winds from the system because those would normally surround the eye. And you'll also be experiencing winds from two opposite directions because the eye is really where the change of direction takes place,” he said.

“If you're on the eastern side, you would see systems or you'll experience the wind moving from the south. But if you're on the western side, you would be experiencing the wind coming from the north. And so you have both sides of the eye with the double effect of those strongest winds impacting the land,” Thompson continued.

The Meteorological Service said it continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Melissa, and all interests should pay close attention to further releases. The next bulletin will be issued at 11 a.m. Saturday.

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