Conditions deteriorate across Jamaica as Melissa heads for the island

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica says Doppler radar and satellite images show that the outer bands of Hurricane Melissa cover most of Jamaica, and have been producing moderate to heavy rainfall over the island ahead of landfall today.

Life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today, peaking at 9 to 13 feet above ground level near and to the east of where the centre of Melissa makes landfall, the agency says. On the northwestern coast, there is also the possibility of 1-3 foot storm surge above ground level.

The Met Service says data obtained from the weather station network indicate rainfall amounts exceeding 100 mm (4 inches) in parts of southern parishes today.

The category 5 hurricane is expected to produce rainfall amounts reaching 350-750 mm (15-30 inches) over parts of Jamaica in the next couple of days, especially over central and eastern parishes, with higher amounts over hilly terrain. Catastrophic flash floods and landslides are likely.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica.

At 5:00 a.m., the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 78.3 West. This is 180 kilometres (115 miles) west southwest of Kingston, or 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Negril Point, Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday, the Met Service says.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.

The Met Service says some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km (30 miles) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 63 km/h (39 mph) and a gust of 93 km/h (58 mph). Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 65 km/h (40 mph) and a gust of 91 km/h (56 mph).

Tropical storm conditions are occurring over Jamaica, and catastrophic hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin early on Tuesday.

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