Mideast war threatens food security in Caribbean, CARICOM official warns

Warning of the threat the ongoing Middle East conflict poses to the Caribbean’s food and economic security, Wendell Samuel, assistant secretary-general (ASG) of CARICOM, is calling for stronger regional coordination to enhance resilience, bargaining power, and capacity to absorb external shocks.

Speaking on Friday during a Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) hybrid regional dialogue on the conflict’s implication for agrifood systems in Latin America and the Caribbean, Samuel noted that while the Caribbean region is geographically distant from the conflict, its economies remain highly exposed to the global shocks transmitted through energy markets, food systems, and global supply chains.

“CARICOM’s high import dependence for food, fuel, fertilisers, and shipping services means that the external geopolitical tensions quickly morph into domestic economic challenges,” he said. “Inflation, food affordability, fiscal stability are not abstract risks for us. They are immediate public policy concerns.”

The US-Israel war with Iran has generated pressures on global energy, fertiliser, and agrifood systems.

The disruption stems from constraints on global shipping after Iran imposed a blockade on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a significant maritime route that connects major Gulf energy producers with international markets.

The FAO noted that under normal conditions, this strait channels nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, equivalent to approximately one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilisers.

However, the restrictions have affected the fluidity of these exchanges, and have created tensions in international markets.

EFFECTS OF WAR

This increased volatility has been observed in energy prices and key agricultural inputs, with effects transmitted to agrifood systems worldwide.

These impacts are seen in higher production costs, pressure on food prices, and risks to food security, particularly in countries with high import dependency.

CARICOM, as a bloc, imports more than 60 per cent of its food, 2022 data has shown. Over the period 2018-2020, the CARICOM food import bill was US$13.76 billion or approximately five per cent of GDP.

Stating that energy volatility, fertiliser shortages and shipping disruptions will result in compounded economic and social pressures, Samuel said, “The gravest risk is rising food insecurity.

“Left unaddressed, this can increase poverty, malnutrition, and social tensions. Empirically, it has been shown that small changes in real income translate into large movements in poverty rates and, consequently, food insecurity.”

While emergency food assistance may be required in some contexts, he stated that “sustained resilience depends on productivity-enhancing technologies, climate-smart agriculture, and strengthened regional food systems”.

Arguing that “a fragmented response will be insufficient” to address the issues arising from the Middle East conflict, he said the CARICOM region has formulated a draft response matrix, to mitigate the projected fallout and challenges to food security.

This document, which will be presented to the region’s agriculture ministers for their consideration, is intended to act as a comprehensive policy framework that links external shocks to policy responses.

‘It identifies sequencing and targeting responses, proposes short-term rapid measures to stabilise conditions while the long-term reforms strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability, and it also calls for regional, collective, and collaborative action,” he said.

The response matrix proposes that governments, in the near term, may need to apply carefully targeted measures to protect household and essential sectors, while directing a long-term focus on renewables, to address the challenge of volatility in the oil markets, Samuels noted.

To combat fertiliser supply disruptions, short-term measures must include prioritising strategic crops and promoting alternative or organic inputs. Strategically, governments should also aim to diversify fertiliser supplies and exploration of regional or domestic production capacity.

He further noted that heightened geopolitical risk increases freight rates, insurance costs, and the likelihood of delays, creating shortages and price instability in CARICOM economies with limited storage and just-in-time import systems.

It is imperative, Samuels contended, that immediate coordination around essential imports be considered while medium-term solutions must include regional shipping arrangements and regional strategic reserves to mitigate shipping and logistic risk.

Food price inflation, supply pressures have pushed up global food price inflation with direct consequences for household welfare and social stability.

To address this, regional governments may need to rely on well-targeted food subsidies, cash transfers, and school-feeding programmes to protect the most vulnerable. However, he noted the extent of these interventions may be limited by the member states not having the required funding and elevated public debt levels.

The long-term priority must be the strengthening of shock-responsive social protection systems capable of scaling during crises.

He noted, too, rising import bills place pressure on foreign reserves, fiscal space, and exchange rates, which may undermine the development gains that the countries have achieved. This, he said, underscores the importance of prudent fiscal targeting in the short-term and coordinated regional approaches to import substitution, financing, and risk-sharing in the longer term.

“Priority actions could include strengthening regional coordination on procurement, logistics, and strategic reserves, accelerating investment in renewable energy and food system resilience, enhancing policy alignment to allow rapid collective response during external shocks, and reinforcing regional institutions tasked with food security and economic surveillance,” Samuel said.

sashana.small@gleanerjm.com