Editorial | Doubling down on bad policy

Delroy Chuck, the justice minister, might wish to remind himself of this newspaper’s frequently expressed adage that what is worse than formulating bad policy is its implementation.

But even worse than that is obduracy and intransigence, which is to say that, having been advised of the emerging negative consequences of the bad policy, the response is doubling down on it.

In that regard, The Gleaner prefers to cling to the slim glimmer of a possibility of change, based on Mr Chuck’s response to deepening concerns about the effects of the minimum mandatory sentences under Jamaica’s Firearms Act, than to the greater likelihood of the government pushing ahead regardless.

What Minister Chuck must advise his colleagues to do is follow the data, trust the science and really listen to and absorb the logic of rational voices. There is often a difference between the optics of being tough on crime and actually delivering lasting and sustainable results.

The current issue relates to the recent warning by Jamaica’s Chief Justice Bryan Sykes that changes to the island’s gun law that provide a mandatory 15-year sentence for the illegal possession of a firearm, or any part thereof, are beginning, as predicted, to be counterproductive, with the potential of causing a return of backlogs in the Gun Court. Already, according to Justice Sykes, guilty pleas for gun crimes are regressing as more accused people opt to take their chances at trial.

At a recent church service ahead of the Michaelmas term of the Home Circuit, the Chief Justice used a metaphoric 22-year-old person to emphasise the rationality of people increasingly preferring to go to trial rather than pleading guilty to firearm possession or other gun charges. That person knows that there is no advantage to pleading guilty. The minimum-sentence provision kicks in regardless.

Explained Justice Sykes: “You say, ‘OK, surprise, surprise, let’s go to trial’. “You are incentivising that type of behaviour. It is a rational decision.”

However, in a response to Justice Sykes this week, Mr Chuck, although indicating a review of the law would be considered, emphasised Jamaica’s problem with gun crimes and the intent of the authorities not to appear weak on that front.

Said the minister: “The security forces and a number of my colleagues feel that the Act is working and (that) it is bringing down murders and shootings.

“That is why we don’t want to send a signal that we are going to relent on the enforcement and condone the possession and use of firearms. But it (the proposal for a review of the legislation) is under consideration.”

Jamaicans welcome the clear reduction in the island’s excessively high crime rate, especially a more-than-40-per-cent year-on-year decline in homicides over the past two years. Over 70 per cent of the island’s murders are committed with guns.

EVIDENCE BASED ANALYSIS

However, notwithstanding Mr Chuck’s anecdotal correlation between the tougher firearm laws and the fall in gun-related crimes, there is a need for data-driven, evidence-based analysis in support of that claim, plus a review of what actually happens in court.

According to the Supreme Court’s statistical review for 2025, the High Court Division of the Gun Court disposed of 756 charges, of which an estimated 152 resulted in either guilty pleas or guilty verdicts.

This meant that the Gun Court in 2025 had an overall conviction rate of 20.11 per cent, a year-on-year decline of 5.16 percentage points, representing, according to the statistical report, “the third consecutive year of decline in this metric”. Looked at another way, even before the latest decline, three-quarters of all gun charges at the Gun Court ended in acquittals.

Said the court in its review: “The data indicate a concerning trend for the Gun Court system. A conviction rate of 20.11 per cent, coupled with a three-year downward trajectory, suggests systemic friction in the transition from charge to sentencing. When one out of every five charges result in a conviction, the ‘deterrent effect’ of the court is significantly weakened. A conviction rate of 20.11 per cent suggests that defendants may feel they have an 80-per-cent chance of walking free if they go to trial. This further disincentivises guilty pleas. Additionally, the drop in convictions may stem from the quality of evidence presented at the preliminary stages. Many disposed charges are being dismissed before trial, suggesting that weaknesses may exist at the point of arrest or filing.”

GUN COURT BOTTLENECK?

In 2025, 363 new cases (as opposed to charges) were filed in the High Court Division of the Gun Court, resulting in a clearance rate of 62.72 per cent. That was a decline of 19.10 percentage points, the first time in eight years that the case-clearance rate for the Gun Court fell below 70 per cent.

“It is clear from these figures that the Gun Court could now be facing a bottleneck in the near future,” the statistical report said. “A clearance rate of 62.72 per cent essentially means that for every 10 cases entering the system, only about six are leaving it. This leads to an immediate buildup of the backlog and, as mentioned, breaks a solid eight-year streak of higher performance.”

There are a raft of reasons for a decline in the clearance rate, but more people going to trial instead of pleading guilty is part of it.