Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie | Jamaica’s oil gamble in the midst of a climate crisis

Whenever United Oil and Gas, a UK-based company with exploration rights in Jamaica, announces progress in its offshore exploration, a flurry of excitement ripples through Jamaica’s media and other public commentators.

The Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, has been quoted as being ‘cautiously optimistic’. But this excitement feels jarring – out of step with the reality Jamaicans are living. It is also a little disturbing that, in a press conference on April 15, Minister Vaz suggested Jamaica “needs some break,” coming on the heels of COVID-19, Hurricanes Beryl and Melissa, and now the war.

None of the public conversation has acknowledged what the burning of fossil fuels has already wrought, locally and globally. In Jamaica, the past few months have brought several climate impacts. Hurricane Melissa in October 2025 caused an estimated US$8.8 billion in damages, and was intensified by a warmer climate driven by fossil fuel combustion. Broader economic losses, due to impacts across housing, agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure, have more recently pushed the total closer to US$12 billion.

This underscores how the very industry driving climate change has also set our economy back by decades. The pressures continued in February, as Jamaicans were warned to brace for drought. Now, meteorologists are advising that El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming months. For the Caribbean, this may mean drier periods, higher sea surface temperatures leading to coral bleaching, and possibly stronger hurricanes, though reduced hurricane activity overall. This is only a glimpse - stretch the timeline further and the impacts multiply.

Despite this, oil exploration in Jamaican waters continues to be discussed as if it exists in a space separate from these realities. Energy security and economic development are legitimate priorities. But so too is the phased transition away from fossil fuels, particularly for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Jamaica that are highly vulnerable to climate impacts.

Since the modern oil industry began in the 1800s, it has powered electricity, transportation, heating, and countless products, including plastics and fertilisers. Alongside that growth, however, fossil fuel burning has driven global warming, which is wreaking havoc globally, particularly in vulnerable countries like Jamaica. So, when we talk about oil exploration in 2026, we are deciding whether to expand a system we already know is causing widespread loss and devastation.

ADVISORY OPINIONS

In the past two years, three major international judicial bodies- the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS, May 2024), the Inter American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR, July 2025), and most recently the International Court of Justice (ICJ, July 2025)- have made it clear: countries have a duty to prevent climate harm. That duty goes beyond government policy and covers what governments allow private companies to do, including oil and gas investments.

The message from all three courts is simple. Climate responsibility is now a legal obligation, not just an ethical one. So approving fossil fuel projects can be challenged as a violation of basic rights to life, health, and a safe environment. For small island states, the courts have also stressed that we must take extra care because of our vulnerability. There is also a legal risk associated with allowing oil exploration because other countries could bring claims against Jamaica, exposing us to litigation before international courts or tribunals.

Ground-breaking climate litigation is already challenging Governments and corporations for their roles in permitting and operating fossil fuel projects.

FALSE PROMISE OF OIL

Jamaica’s need for economic growth and energy security is real. Like many small island states, we are trying to build prosperity while dealing with a changing climate. The appeal of oil is easy to understand – money, jobs, and the hope of energy independence, but even the latter is uncertain. Guyana, which made one of the largest oil discoveries in recent history, is now facing fuel shortages, according to media reports. Oil wealth does not automatically translate into energy security.

Beyond the climate risks, the oil and gas industry has a long record of corruption and inequality. In countries like Nigeria and Venezuela, oil wealth has often benefited a few, while leaving many behind. Jamaica is particularly susceptible to these risks.

There are also the ecological impacts to consider. The Walton-Morant block, under licence by United Oil and Gas, off Jamaica’s southern coast, is close to sensitive ecosystems like the Pedro Bank and the Pedro Cays. These areas are rich in marine life and support fisheries that many Jamaicans depend on. Drilling in this region could put those ecosystems at risk, affecting fisheries and tourism.

So, will an oil find truly improve life for ordinary Jamaicans, or will it repeat old patterns associated with other extractive industries that take resources from the ground, bringing economic instability, inequality, and environmental harm?

CHOICE BEFORE US

Aligning our energy choices with climate responsibility is not simply a matter of compliance with international agreements. It is about Jamaica’s credibility on the global stage, legal exposure under international law, and the survival of our people in the face of worsening climate impacts.

We cannot call for climate finance and support internationally while opening the door to fossil fuels at home. We cannot talk about climate justice while ignoring the risks of corruption, stranded investments, and international litigation. Most importantly, we cannot forget that it is this very industry – the burning of fossil fuels – that has driven the climate crisis and set Jamaica’s economy back by billions.

Jamaica now faces a clear choice: hold on to the risky promise of oil, or choose a path built on resilience, fairness, and long term stability. The decision we make will shape far more than our economy. It will define our future, our reputation, and our standing in international law.

Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie is an environmental scientist and chief executive officer of the Jamaica Environment Trust. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com